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    The State of the Art in Expert Judgement

    TU Delft
    July 3rd to 5th, 2017
    Conference website

    The Action will be holding a final international conference to summarise and reflect on the current state of the art in the use of expert judgement studies within risk and decision analyses.



    The State of the Art in Expert Judgement

    TU Delft
    July 3rd to 5th, 2017

    Conference website


    The Action will be holding a final international conference to summarise and reflect on the current state of the art in the use of expert judgement studies within risk and decision analyses.



    Events

    News

    STSMs 2016/2017

    The action has funded 6 STSMs over the coming months! 

    Successful meeting on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty Assessment

    October 2016: The Action held a workshop on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty hosted by colleagues at TU Delft

    Expert Judgement Workshop, 26th August 2016

    An expert judgement workshop is being held at the University of Strathclyde on Friday 26th August!

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    International Early Stage Research Training School, Warsaw

    International Early Stage Researcher Training School on

    Applying Expert Judgement Methodologies to Real Problems

    Warsaw, Wednesday 16th March to Friday 18th March, 2016

     

    Organisers

    Michal Zdziarski, Faculty of Management, University of Warsaw

    Abigail Colson, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde

    Gabriela Nane, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, TU Delft


    School Website – scholarship application deadline 12th February 2016

    http://rodziceszkole.wix.com/tschool

    All additional information regarding venue, program, and social activities is available via this webpage.

    Introduction

    The School is funded the COST Action IS1304 Expert Judgment Network: Bridging the Gap between Scientific Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision Making, and the Foundation for the Faculty of Management, University of Warsaw.

    The aim of the school is to provide an introduction to the theory and practice of applying expert judgement methodologies in decision and risk analyses. The School will last two and a half days during which the attendees will be introduced to the background theory, including relevant behavioural studies. Much of the training will focus around practical exercises.

    Application to take part in this training school should be submitted via the school’s webpage: http://rodziceszkole.wix.com/tschool

    The deadline to apply for scholarships is 12th February 2016 - you will be contacted within a week of this deadline.

    Content

    The proposed agenda includes:

    ·         5 lectures, on Expert Judgement generally and Cooke’s Classical Model specifically including:

    1.       The unholy trinity – introduction to uncertainty and decision-making

    2.       Cooke’s Classical Model and sample elicitation exercise

    3.       Design and reporting of Cooke’s Classical Model studies

    4.       Other Expert Judgement Methods

    5.       Validating the Classical Model

    •    A short elicitation exercise in which you become the experts
    •    A Classical Model exercise, for which the trainers will serve as experts
    •    A group exercise (exact format to be determined) on expert judgment and the Warsaw Uprising, followed by a visit to the Warsaw Uprising Museum
    •    A closing keynote talk which will be open to the university 
    •    Time at the start/close of the workshop for attendees to share how Expert Judgement could be applied in their fields


    N.B. Prior to the course, the students will be expected to have completed an introductory session on the Action’s Moodle training site.  This will be roughly equivalent to a further 3 hours of training and will be supported through a forum on the site with interaction from one or more of the tutors on the course. 

    Support

    During their time in Warsaw, trainees will be supported with other training material on the same site. The students will be provided with electronic copies of notes, slides, case studies, and other material.  Copies will also be available on the Moodle site.

    Note that students will be expected to bring their own laptops, capable of running Windows software, either directly or through emulation. The discussion forum on the Action’s Moodle site will continue to run in the weeks after it to continue discussion and share experiences in applying the ideas back in their research institutes and universities. 

    All content of the course will be archived in the Moodle site.

    Length of Course

    We foresee the course participants meeting on the Tuesday evening, to introduce themselves at the Invisible Exhibition and informal dinner in Warsaw. The remaining two and a half full days will be spent at BUW Warsaw University Library (16th/17th) and CeNT (18th).