Kick-Off Conference April 2014 (Presentations)

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    The State of the Art in Expert Judgement

    TU Delft
    July 3rd to 5th, 2017
    Conference website

    The Action will be holding a final international conference to summarise and reflect on the current state of the art in the use of expert judgement studies within risk and decision analyses.



    The State of the Art in Expert Judgement

    TU Delft
    July 3rd to 5th, 2017

    Conference website


    The Action will be holding a final international conference to summarise and reflect on the current state of the art in the use of expert judgement studies within risk and decision analyses.



    Events

    News

    STSMs 2016/2017

    The action has funded 6 STSMs over the coming months! 

    Successful meeting on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty Assessment

    October 2016: The Action held a workshop on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty hosted by colleagues at TU Delft

    Expert Judgement Workshop, 26th August 2016

    An expert judgement workshop is being held at the University of Strathclyde on Friday 26th August!

    Kick-Off Conference April 2014

    Please find below the presentation slides from our Kick-Off Conference in Glasgow in April 2014.

     

     TitleSizeDescription
    Simon French - Do We Know How To Report Expert Judgement Studies1.79 MBDue to much concern currently in the science press and other media about reporting and peer reviewing empirical data studies, Simon French will argue that we should pause and consider how we do this to convince others of our methodologies' soundness.
    Roger Cooke - False Certainty Or False Uncertainty3.09 MBRisk analysis is about improbable and unwelcome events. Data is always in short supply and uncertainty quantification is the order of the day. Roger Cooke has recently been engaged in quantifying uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics in global warming.
    Owaldo Morales - Calibration And Combination Of Experts Dependence Estimates1.25 MBCauses of uncertainty may be interrelated and may introduce dependencies. Ignoring these dependencies may lead to errors. Two methods for eliciting conditional rank correlations via related quantities are compared and a measure of calibration is presented
    Willy Aspinall - Uncertainty Erupting8.73 MBWhen a volcano becomes restless, public officials must take life and death decisions facing massive uncertainties. Willy Aspinall will share some of his experiences and show how his results stack up over the long term Montserrat Volcano Observatory.
    Villie Flari - Applying Structured Expert Judgement - Experience From Projects On Food Safety1.10 MBThe presentation will provide an overview of applying SEJ in areas where policy-making and decision making needs to be made in the face of large scientific uncertainties - projects on food safety and/or emerging sciences and technologies.
    Tim Bedford - Welcome183.57 KBTim Bedford gives his welcome and sets the start for taking a broad look at the challenges and demands for uncertainty assessment that make this COST Action so important.
    David Rios Insua - Some Problems In Uncertainty Modelling and Foundational Issues726.46 KBSome possible problems of interest concerning uncertainty modelling and foundational issues in relation with expert judgement are outlined to stimulate discussion and brainstorm about problems of interest for WG3 in coordination with other WGs.
    Anca Hanea - Eliciting Dependence: The Why, What And How1.16 MBMost elicitation methods are focused on making assessments of the uncertainty of single quantities. However, risk models usually have more than one uncertain input, and we must consider how to represent uncertainty about multiple quantities jointly.
    Abigail Colson - Bang For Benevolent Bucks3.36 MBThe Robert Wood Johnson Foundation recently contracted for the development of innovative measures of policy effectiveness, and Abby Colson was able to apply the principles of structured expert judgment to score policy effectiveness.
    Mark Burgman - The Intelligence Game1.88 MBThis presentation will outline the rules of the game designed by IARPA in the United States to evaluate expert predictions of geopolitical events. It will describe the full results from the first two years of operation.
    Luis Dias - On Combining Elicitation Of Judgement And Robustness Analysis688.19 KBThis talk presents strategies to use robustness analysis in decision aiding processes as a means to cope with judgment elicitation difficulties. A simple additive aggregation model will be used as an illustration.
    John Quigley - Multiple Experts Making Multiple Assessments1.30 MBTesting engineering structures to assess reliability can be challenging and expensive, hence motivating the design of novel test and sampling strategies. This research develops a process to elicit and structure expert engineering judgement for BNs.