Events

News

The State of the Art in Expert Judgement

TU Delft
July 3rd to 5th, 2017
Conference website

The Action will be holding a final international conference to summarise and reflect on the current state of the art in the use of expert judgement studies within risk and decision analyses.



The State of the Art in Expert Judgement

TU Delft
July 3rd to 5th, 2017

Conference website


The Action will be holding a final international conference to summarise and reflect on the current state of the art in the use of expert judgement studies within risk and decision analyses.



Events

News

STSMs 2016/2017

The action has funded 6 STSMs over the coming months! 

Successful meeting on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty Assessment

October 2016: The Action held a workshop on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty hosted by colleagues at TU Delft

Expert Judgement Workshop, 26th August 2016

An expert judgement workshop is being held at the University of Strathclyde on Friday 26th August!

Introducing Structured Expert Judgement

In the following link, you will find a useful introduction to structured expert judgement:

Introducing Structured Expert Judgement

Presentations

Below you can find the slides of the presentations that were given at out various events. Please select the link of the event whose presentations you would like to see/download.

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Kick-Off Conference

University of Strathclyde Glasgow, April 2014

Kick-Off Conference April 2014 (Presentations)

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Mathematical Methods in Reliability Research

Glasgow, August 2014

Reliability Research - EJ Workshop (Presentations)

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Science, Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Mitigation of Natural Risks

Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, October 2014

Rome Workshop Presentations

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Expert Judgement Workshop

University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, August 2015

Expert Judgement Workshop Presentations

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Expert Judgement to Enhance Health Decision-Making


University of Malta, Valletta, October 2015

Presentations coming soon! 
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 Food Safety and Food Security Workshop


Dubrovnik, Croatia, April 2016

Programme

Presentations coming soon! 
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Expert Judgement in Project and Asset Management

Delft, Netherlands, October 2016

Programme


Workshop Presentations



Case Studies

Below you can find some relevant case studies related to the work of Action IS1304:

Hemophilia Case
Summary: Cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for Severe Haemophilia

Related Papers:



PM25  
Summary: Kuwait Fires Case

Related Papers:
i) Mortality in Kuwait due to PM from oil fires after the Gulf War: Combining expert elicitation assessments
ii)What risk assessment can tell us about the mortality impacts of the Kuwaiti oil fires
iii) A probabilistic Characterization of the Relationship Between Fine Particulate Matter and Mortality: Elicitation of European Experts

The expert data from the case study in Excalibur format can be found here: PM25

 Erie-Carps
Summary: Asian Carp Invasion

Related Papers:
i) Out-of-Sample Validation for Structured Expert Judgement of Asian Carp Establishment in Lake Erie
ii) Structured expert judgement to forecast species invasions: Bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie
iii) Using Structured Expert Judgement to Assess Invasive Species Prevention: Asian Carp and he Mississippi Great Lakes Hydrologic Connection

The expert data from the case study in Excalibur format can be found here: 

EuusnrcDD
Summary: 

Related Papers:

 The expert data from the case study in Excalibur format can be found here: EunrcDD

Other case study summaries 
 Ice Sheet Dynamics
 Nitrogen runoff
 WHO Study Global

Papers

Below you can choose from some of the contributors that would like to share some of their work. Just click at the name to see/download some of it.

Name:

Cooke, Roger


Useful Links

Here you can find some useful links that will bring you to some external sources with useful content in the area of Structured Expert Judgement.

Common Resources, the Resources for the Future blog: Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change (Roger Cooke) - see more at: http://common-resources.org/2014/deep-and-shallow-uncertainty-in-messaging-climate-change/