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    Workshop on Expert Judgement for Geographical and Adversarial Problems - Madrid

    COST IS1304

    Expert Judgment Network: Bridging the Gap between Scientific Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision Making

    Workshop on

    Expert Judgement for Geographical and Adversarial   Problems

    Madrid, Wednesday 15th April - 17th April, 2015


    Simon French, Warwick University, UK

    David Rios, Math. Sciences Inst., Nat. Res. Council, Spain

    Workshop web site


    Under COST Action IS1304, a Workshop on Expert Judgement for Geographical and Adversarial Problems will be held in April 2015 in Madrid. It will be collocated with an Early Stage Researcher Training School on the Use of Expert Judgement, the Action’s Working Group Meetings and the Actions General Assembly.

    The Workshop will focus on two relevant applied areas which require innovative fundamental contributions from the expert judgement arena: geographical and adversarial uncertainties.

    • The presentation, discussion, analysis and communication of geographical uncertainty.  In managing many crises and quick moving events, geographical uncertainties come to the fore: e.g. uncertain extent of contamination or floods.  Often there are temporal aspects:  how soon might a plume of gas reach a particular point?  Simply displaying and communicating such uncertainties is a cognitive challenge.  Yet in any crisis experts are required to precisely that to inform emergency managers and other key decision makers, as well as inform the public.  Equally many decisions on longer term policy need to take account of spatio-temporal uncertainties and thus there is a need to convey these to policy makers.
    • Adversarial uncertainties refer to cases in which one needs to forecast the actions of competitors ready to increase our risks and are the subject of recent intense work. Typical applications include homeland security, defence, cybersecurity, competitive marketing or auctions, in which we need to combine expert judgement techniques with game theoretic arguments.
    • Both issues meet in a middle ground when, e.g., we need to assess security in urban spaces or need to allocate resources for a marketing campaign across a territory. 

    The workshop aims at reviewing recent developments and identifying working issues to be later developed at the COST IS1304 Action Working Groups.

    Apart from funding under the COST Action IS1304, the workshop is also supported by the AXA-ICMAT Chair in Adversarial Risk Analysis, the ICMAT Severo Ochoa Center of Excellence Award, the UK ADMLC-funded project on Displaying Geographical Uncertainty at Warwick University and the Royal Academy of Sciences.

    Schedule of Workshop

    The workshop will start on afternoon of Wednesday 15th April, after the ESR School and will end at midday on Friday 17th April, with the WG sessions. The Action Assembly will take place on Thursday 16th April. 

    The Mathematical Sciences Institute of the National Research Council of Spain

    The ICMAT-CSIC is located to the North of Madrid @UAM Campus and is easily reached by train, Cantoblanco Universidad. Ad hoc buses will be scheduled as indicated above.

    Note that on Friday 17th April the event will take place @ the Royal Academy in Madrid City Center, Valverde 22, to facilitate transport back to the Airport


    A range of hotels will be provided to be directly booked by participants.

    A nominal fee will be asked to non-IS1304 members.


    The following have agreed to speak:

    1. Simon French (Warwick), Workshop on geographical uncertainty
    2. Stephanie Haywood (Public Health England), Workshop on geographical uncertainty
    3. Jesus Rios (IBM Research), Adversarial Uncertainty
    4. Eva Chen (U. Pennsylvania), The Good Judgement Project 

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