Short Term Scientific Missions

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    STSMs 2016/2017

    The action has funded 6 STSMs over the coming months! 

    Successful meeting on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty Assessment

    October 2016: The Action held a workshop on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty hosted by colleagues at TU Delft

    Expert Judgement Workshop, 26th August 2016

    An expert judgement workshop is being held at the University of Strathclyde on Friday 26th August!

    Short Term Scientific Missions - what are they?

    Short-Term Scientific Missions (STSMs) contribute to the scientific objectives of a COST Action by enabling researchers to carry out international research visits. STSMs are intended particularly for early stage researchers, though are open to all.

    A scientist fits the definition of “early-stage researcher” if the time between the date of obtaining a PhD degree (or equivalent) and the date of involvement in the COST Action does not exceed 8 years. Doctoral students are also eligible for STSMs.

    During the course of the action, 17 STSMs were funded.

    Past STSMs

    Below is an outline of our past Short-Term Scientific Missions and their key outcomes:

    Participant Host  Host Institution  Topic 
    Claudia Ceppi Prof David Rios Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid Multivariate extreme models vs Matrix based method: the case of Jiquilisco (El Salvador)

    Report: CCeppi
    Yrjänä Hynninen
    Prof Alec Morton University of Strathclyde, Glasgow Research Group w/ Prof Alec Morton (Strathclyde), Laura Schang (LSE), Prof Ahti Salo (Aalto) - Examining the decision-making processes in healthcare and how the processes are organised and evaluate with a focus on developing comprehensive performance comparisons of healthcare units.

    Report: YHynninen
    Christoph Werner Dr Anca Hanea & Dr Oswaldo Morales Napoles TU Delft Opportunity for deeper insight into the work which has been carried out at TU Delft in the area of using expert judgement methods for eliciting dependence assessment - this fostered the first contribution to this PhD thesis. 

    Report: CWerner
    Ioannis Andreadis Dr Wolfgang Rudig Department of Government, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow  Using expert surveys to position political parties

    Report: IAndreadis
    Mart. P. Janssen Prof Tim Bedford Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow Development of a methodology for expert opinion in SoHO (Substances of Human Origin) transmission risk assessment

    Report: MJanssen
    Philip Bonanno Prof Simon French University of Warwick, UK Developing a training curse in Moodle about Structured Expert Judgement 

    Report: PBonanno

    Ozlem Karsu Prof Alec Morton   Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow The research topic that is explored during the mission aims to improve the decision making process of (health care) policy makers, by using systematic decision support, which explicitly handles (multi-dimensional) equity concerns and which uses expert judgement whenever necessary throughout the decision process.

    Report: OKarsu

    Michele Compare Prof Ahti Salo Systems Analysis Laboratory of Aalto University School of Science, Finland A fundamental outcome of engineering risk analysis is the identification of risk reduction measures to be installed throughout the system, which seek to curtail the occurrence and impact of accident scenarios. In this context, the research issue of interest is to develop a methodology to establish sound quantification processes in order to characterize, on rational basis, the magnitude of risks for personnel, environment, or continuity of business operations after the implementation of risk mitigation measures.

    Report: MCompare

    Patricia Vella Bonanno Prof Alec Morton Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow This STSM followed from the meeting of the COST Action IS1304 which was held in Malta in October 2015. The theme of the COST Action meeting in Malta was the application of expert judgement in health care. An idea which emerged from the meeting in Malta is the importance of the role of expert judgement in the policy and decisions required to secure early access to medicines. Early access initiatives often involve evaluation of new medicinal products before conclusive evidence about their effectiveness and benefit/risk is established, leading to conditional approval and possibly the transfer of additional risk to the post-authorisation phase.

    Report: PVBonanno

    Frabrizio Ruggeri Prof David Rios Insua ICMAT-CSIC 

    Adversarial Risk Analysis focussing on risk situations in which some of the threats cine from intelligence adversaries

    Report: FRuggeri

    Maria Nogal Dr Oswaldo Morales-Napoles TU Delft 

    Dependency Modelling

    Report: MNogal

    Alex Kosgodagan  Dr. Oswaldo Morales-Napoles Delft University of Technology The STSM application was mainly to execute the analysis of the elicitation outcomes :
    1. performing the post-hoc analysis of the expert judgment, namely processing the inputs obtained from the elicitation and compute the various performance scorse as well as the decision makers’

    2. examining how robust the elicitation is in terms of experts as well as seed variables. Robustness tests are brought forward as to measure how relevant experts or seed questions are, for instance if the majority of the experts fail to estimate one or more items. 

      Report: AKosgodagan

    Valentina Ferretti  Prof David Rios ICMAT  Behavioural biases in expert judgement for uncertainty modelling in the spatial domain. 

    The aim of this STSM was to explore cognitive and motivational biases which could affect expert judgement elicitation when modelling uncertainties in a spatial decision making context. The purpose of the STSM was to design a behavioural experiment.

    Report: VFerretti
    Mariia Kozlova  Prof Giovanna Lo Nigro  University of Palermo  To study the modelling and the effect of biases on strategic decision-making in biopharmaceutical R&D project management to provide better understanding of the biopharmaceutical reality.

    Sophia Wright  Dr. Tina Nane Delft University of Technology  Dependence Elicitation

    The aim of this STSM was to create a formal protocol to deduce the structure of a probabilistic graphical model from experts. To our knowledge there have been numerous attempts at using experts to determine the structure of Bayesian networks (BNs), however no formal algorithm or procedure has been devised, meaning that results are not always reproducible and sometimes lack rigor. 

    Report: SWright
    Valentina Ferretti Prof. Raimo


    Aalto University  Spatial environmental decision-making with portfolio decision analysis: design and development of a behavioural experiment

    The aim of this Short Term Scientific Mission was to design a behavioural experiment to test the presence of range insensitivity in spatial decision-making processes, focusing on the implications for structured expert elicitation. 

    Report: VFerretti  
    Ossama Raboun  Prof David Rios Insua  ICMAT 

    The aim of the Short Term Scientific Mission (STSM) is to establish a formal approach, which takes into consideration the expert judgement, to synthesize the spatial information in the case of multiple attribute eval- uations (describing various axes of the evaluation) and potentially uncertain information over scenarios (release positions, sea conditions,...).To provide the decision maker with indicators about the potential threats at each activity sector and geographic zone of interest. 

    Report: ORaboun