COST

Session 1: Opening address

Oswaldo Morales, Simon French and Tina Nane

Session 2: The state of the art in Structured Expert Judgement 1

Valuing and evaluating expertise: judgment, policy and business - Tim Bedford

The competition and the opportunity: an overview of expert elicitation methods and applications for the last few years - Tom Mazzuchi

Session 3: The state of the art in Structured Expert Judgement 2

Structured expert judgment with the Classical Model – experiences of an NBD facilitator - Willy Aspinall

Expert judgment: probabilities, parameters and MODELS! - Simon French

Expert judgment and adversarial problems - David Rios

Decisions with partially and imprecisely specified judgments - Malcolm Farrow

Session 4: Dependence modelling

Specification of uncertainty distributions for multinomial models with expert judgements: a vine copulas approach - Kevin Wilson

Bayesian modelling of dependence between experts - David Hartley

The sequential conditioning method: Addressing under- and overspecification of detailed expert judgment for probabilities dependence modelling - Christoph Werner

Session 5: Applications 1

The use of expert judgment in terrorism risk assessment - Gordon Woo

Guidelines for better science advice: Examples from applications in natural hazard assessments - Annemarie Christophersen

Risk assessment of an offshore recovery operation - Arno Willems

Session 6: Processes and guidelines

Customising a graph to support structural elicitation - Jim Smith

Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol: what could go wrong? - Anca Hanea

Who to trust? Assessing and improving expert judgment with conservation - Victoria Hemming

Session 7: The Classical Model: theory, validity, extensions

Classical Model Collage - Max Mendel, Ben Ale, Willy Aspinall, Simon French, Gordon Woo

Validating expert judgments and the Classical Model - Abby Colson

Measuring experts’ performance in assessing dependence: experiences and open questions - Oswaldo Morales Napoles

The squizzle and its friends - John Paul Gosling

Summing up - Roger Cooke

Session 8: Modeller viewpoints 1

Three-point lifetime distribution elicitation for maintenance optimization in a Bayesian context - René van Dorp

Finding common ground when experts disagree: belief dominance over portfolios of alternatives - Ahti Salo

The living room of science: do we need questionable research practices to survive in academia? - Rens van de Schoot

Session 9: Applications 2

The use of expert judgments in quantifying uncertainties in risk assessment of food and feed safety – experiences and lessons learnt from the implementation of EFSA’s Expert Knowledge Elicitation Guidance - Olaf Mosbach-Schulz and Andy Hart

Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance with structured expert judgment - Abby Colson

Source attribution of food- and waterborne pathogens in the United States using structured expert judgement - Elizabeth Beshearse

Session 10: Modeller viewpoints 2

The case of 10-6 and other alternative opinions - Ben Ale

Dependency elicitation using expert judgment - Victory Idowu

Session 11: Achievements of the COST action & next steps

WG1 Report

WG2 Report

WG5 Report